Wafer prices continue to decline, while solar cell supply remains tight [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

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SMM, June 20:

Electrode

prices

Although raw material prices saw a slight increase this week, there was no significant change in electrode prices. Currently, ordinary power carbon electrodes with diameters of 960-1100mm are quoted at 6,200-6,400 yuan/mt, and those with a diameter of 1272mm are quoted at 6,900-7,100 yuan/mt. Ordinary power graphite electrodes with diameters of 960-1100mm are quoted at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, and those with a diameter of 1272mm are quoted at 10,900-11,100 yuan/mt. Actual transactions allow for some negotiation space.

Supply

The overall focus remains on destocking, with the industry's operating rate at a low level.

Demand

Affected by weak demand from both silicon plants and steel mills, trading activity is sluggish, and there is a strong sentiment to drive down prices, with only small orders for restocking being maintained.

Silicon Metal

Prices

This week, spot silicon metal prices remained stable, while futures prices were relatively firm. Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was priced at 8,000-8,300 yuan/mt, flat WoW. On June 19, silicon metal warrants stood at 55,179 lots (275,895 mt), down 3,193 lots (15,965 mt) WoW. There is a strong tug-of-war between longs and shorts, with close attention paid to changes in market sentiment and downstream polysilicon production.

Production:

Industrial silicon production continues to rise. On one hand, large plants in Xinjiang have increased production rapidly; on the other hand, silicon enterprises in south-west China have gradually resumed operations, contributing to the increase in industrial silicon production. It is expected that the supply-demand balance will shift towards a looser state in July.

Inventory

Social Inventory: As of June 19, SMM statistics show that the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 559,000 mt, down 13,000 mt WoW. Among them, the general social warehouse held 131,000 mt, down 2,000 mt WoW, and the social delivery warehouse held 428,000 mt (including unregistered warrants and spot parts), down 11,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Wafer

Prices

N-type 18X wafers are priced at 0.88-0.92 yuan/piece, and N-type 210RN wafers are priced at 1.3-1.07 yuan/piece. Prices continued to decline this week, with second- and third-tier manufacturers lowering their prices, and market sentiment remains weak.

Production

Global wafer production in June is expected to be around 59 GW. Currently, it is common for wafer enterprises to incur cash cost losses, with top-tier enterprises maintaining production near the cash cost line. There may be room for minor production cuts in the future.

Inventory

Overall market transactions were moderate this week, with some low-price orders signed and previous shipments delivered, leading to a slight destocking for some manufacturers.

Solar Cell

Prices

The price of high-efficiency PERC182 solar cells (with efficiency of 23.2% and above) is 0.265-0.27 yuan/W. Most orders are for export, with some producers integrating production line resources and starting or stopping production based on orders.

The mainstream quotation for Topcon183N solar cells (with efficiency of 25% and above) is 0.23-0.24 yuan/W; the mainstream transaction price for Topcon210RN is 0.265 yuan/W, with a quotation range of 0.265-0.27 yuan/W; the price for Topcon210N solar cells is around 0.255-0.26 yuan/W. Among them, the price of 210N is showing a downward trend due to supply-demand balance pressures; 210R and 183N prices are temporarily stable, with multiple producers having already taken production cuts to control supply, and currently facing downward price adjustment risks due to cost-side fluctuations.

The mainstream quotation for HJT 30% silver-coated copper (with efficiency of 25% and above) is 0.35-0.36 yuan/W. Prices have increased due to market demand fluctuations and cost control. HJT has relatively little direct sales overall, with integrated producers being self-sufficient.

Production

Global production schedules for June are 57-58 GW, down 4-5% MoM. Solar cell supply continues to tighten due to weak demand, but the tightening is less than expected. Currently, there have been significant additional production cuts for 183N, and actual output in June will be adjusted downward.

Inventory

There are also size-related differences in inventory levels at export-oriented producers, with 183 continuing to experience inventory buildup, while the situation for 210R is optimistic, and overall inventory has slightly increased. It is expected that the situation will improve next week due to production cuts for 183.

PV Film

Prices

PV-grade EVA

The current price of PV-grade EVA is 9,500-9,750 yuan/mt. The transaction price for PV-grade POE is 12,000-14,000 yuan/mt.

PV Film

Currently, the mainstream price for 420g transparent EVA film is 5.17-5.25 yuan/m², the price for 420g white EVA film is 5.67-5.75 yuan/m², the price for 380g EPE film is 5.28-5.32 yuan/m², and the price for 380g POE film is 6.69-6.84 yuan/m².

Production

The production schedule for PV-grade EVA in June is down 2.70% MoM, and the production schedule for PV film is down 3.1% MoM.

Inventory

Currently, the transaction pace for PV-grade EVA has slowed down recently, with PV film enterprises purchasing based on immediate needs, leading to gradual inventory buildup of PV-grade EVA.